Devore's Amateurish Campaign Cannot Defeat Boxer

I have written on a number of occasions about the calculus of candidate endorsements. Political agreement is necessary but insufficient to warrant an endorsement. A candidate must have a reasonable chance of winning to be worthy of securing a major endorsement, else the endorser is squandering an endorsement. A string of losing endorsements diminishes the endorser's political capital. Despite protestations to the contrary, Gov. Palin got this endorsement right, just as she did the others. The following proves the point:

No Chance Against Boxer in a General Election

On November 6, 2009, the Los Angeles Times wrote that the outcome of a Boxer-Devore race would be inevitable, and not in Devore's favor. On November 16, 2009, Salon.com wrote that Devore could win a GOP primary but could not win a general election.

Poor Fundraising - Devore Already Spent 90% of Money Raised

According to a Washington Independent article published November 16, 2009, Devore raised $700K and has less than one tenth of it left. The Independent reported that Devore had raised $700K and had $60K remaining. Devore's fundraising situation was deteriorating two months prior, when according to a December 10, 2009 Washington Post article, Devore had only $144K and conceded he would have difficulty raising money to compete against Fiorina.

Devore Fights Republicans Working to Defeat Sen. Boxer

Devore has had a long-running feud with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Aaron Blake reported on December 17, 2009 that Devore would not be seeking the NRSC's help. Reid Wilson of the National Journal’s Hotline On Call, wrote on December 16, 2009 that the Devore campaign twice sent meeting requests to the wrong office. Further, though Devore is a Republican he has alienated the NRSC. Both sides are locked in heated arguments over who invited who to meetings, and allegations of favoritism, according to Reid.

According to Aaron Blake, who wrote "Outsider Senate Candidates Decline Republican Party’s Offer To Help," for The Hill on December 17, 2009, NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said the Devore campaign "likes to play games." Walsh continued, "It’s unfortunate, but if and when they’d like to stop this nonsense and work with us on defeating Barbara Boxer next year, we look forward to meeting with them."

Devore is a Birther...

The Washington Independent wrote on November 16, 2009 that Devore was using Obama's birth records in an attempt to turn conservatives away from Firoina.

Class Warfare

On August 13, 2009, the American Spectator reported that Devore referred to Fiorina as a "dilettante" and a "rich moderate." More than three months later, on November 18, 2009, the Assoicated Press reported that Devore would "attack Firorina on core economic issues.

Devore Concedes Lack of Name Recognition

According to the Wall Street Journal, in a December 14, 2009 article, Fiorina is a nationally known figure; however, Devore has little name recognition outside his Orange County District. While he raised $1 million, Fiorina is projected to raise at least $10 million.

The Fiorina Campaign, is Focused, Organized, and Ready

The California Progress Report's November 17, 2009 assessment was that "Fiorina will almost certainly win her primary election over GOP opponent Chuck DeVore, which will pit her against Boxer in November." The Washington Times two days later would write about Fiorina's aggressive campaign against Boxer's cap and tax legislation.

According to a November 19, 2009 Roll Call article, Dan Scnhur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California and a former Republican political strategist said, "Fiorina has the potential to be the most formidable opponent that Boxer’s ever faced." The Star-Ledger wrote a concurring article on November 5, 2009.

Conclusion

To be a worthwhile endorsement, the candidate must be running an effective campaign and have good odds of winning. Endorsements are not merely about who is the most conservative. That is but one factor in a complicated decision-making process - a calculus. Governor Palin is politically astute, having been in politics for over 18 years. Every endorsement she makes is carefully considered. Some people might get upset because their dream candidate was not endorsed. Perhaps, if they took a mental step back and did some of the calculus involved, they would understand why their dream candidate did not secure the endorsement.

Candidate endorsements are not just about principles. They're about winning. They're also high-risk, for if one of her endorsed candidates loses, it reflects on Governor Palin. She is not going to squander the political capital she worked so hard to build, to make a few purists happy. Our goal between now and November 2, 2010 is to take back the House and the Senate, so that Obama's agenda can be stalled, neutered and reversed.

In this senatorial race, Fiorina, not Devore is the one who can beat Boxer. Devore's campaign has squandered funds almost as soon as they were raised and alienated key Republicans through its amateurish operations. Devore also does not have national name recognition critical in a federal election. The foregoing clearly indicates that winning a primary will be next to impossible for Devore, and Boxer will win a general election with him as the opposition.

Governor Palin most absolutely did the right thing endorsing Fiorina.